Friday, July 17, 2009

Recession ending... fragile recovery in process

Recession Ending...Fragile Recovery in ProcessGlobal

economists now believe the global recession ended in Q2'2009 and a fragile recovery has begun in the third quarter. Growth forecasts up being revised upwards across the globe, but most notably in the US and China. The 2010 global GDP forecast is now 3.7%, with GDP growth in the emerging markets at 5.5% forecast to outperform growth in developed markets at 2.2%.

THE International Monetary Fund on Wednesday raised its outlook for the global economy in 2010, but said recovery from the worst recession since World War II would be sluggish. The IMF boosted its 2010 global growth forecast to 2.5 per cent, an improvement of 0.6 point from its April forecast. However, the global recovery is not yet self- sustaining and is likely to be very slow.

Singapore Market Update
On 16 July, Singapore reported growth of 20.4% in second quarter'09 GDP over the previous quarter, making Singapore the first Asian economy to get out of a technical recession. The government has raised the 2009 growth forecast from to -4% to -6% this year. However, there is caution in the fact that one quarter of growth does not signify a definite upward trend. At the same time, it is agreed that the recovery process remains frought with risks. Markets can still be shaken by bad news from global economies.

Remember however that the stock market anticipates the economy and moves up 6-12 months before the economy recovers and that is why the STI has been rallying so strongly for the past 4 months.

Action on PortfolioThe current PE ratio of the STI is about 12, slightly undervalued from the historical average of 15. At it's current level of 2,300 points, it has got a 65% upside to its pre-crisis level of 3800 points. Of course, this will not happen overnight, with lots of ups and downs along the way. Since the STI hit its recent high of 2,400, it has only pulled back 5% to its current level.

While I wished the market could have gone a lot lower, there is a strong possibility there is more near term upside given the stronger than expected economic data. I do not hold any singapore stocks but my good friend and Adam has started to buy back his core holdings of STI ETF, SGX, Capitaland and UOB. However, there are current only slightly undervalued so he is only taking a small position. its all about patience and we are both hoping for more downside so that we can buy more at a bigger discount in the next few months.

These are his recent buys:
15 Jul Buy STI ETF at $2.40
15 Jul Buy SGX at $7.05
15 Jul Buy UOB at $14.90
14 Jul Buy Capitaland at $3.40

* Note that STI ETF is not reflected in the online portfolio because of technical reasons, the market data cannot be pulled.

US Market Update
Up for a third consecutive session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed 158.10 points, or 1.9%, to 8,517.5. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) added 16.41 points, or 1.8%, to stand at 922.25, with materials and energy shares fronting the broad market gains, while the Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) rose 43.97 points, or 2.4%, to 1,843.7.

What's driving this rally? The start of this new earnings season has been very encouraging. Goldman Sachs (GS 149.66, +0.22) unveiled earnings of $4.93 per share for the second quarter. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 58.23, +0.51) reported better-than-expected earnings and Intel also exceeded expectations. In addition, Well regarded Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney encouraged buying in the financial sector by indicating that bank stocks have strong potential in the near-term. On the economic data side, PPI and Core PPI for June increase more than expected and advance Retail Sales increase more than expected.

I am more active in the U.S markets as there are more tools for research, Very risk averse kind
I have brought in alot during the BIG DISCOUNT period over the past few months, and currently i am only taking a small position, SNP ETF, FXI ETF, VISA Stock. For Visa its only slightly undervalued, where esle the ETFs, there at least another 50% to where it was during the peak, i am waiting for more downside so that i can buy more at a bigger discount in the next few months. And there is always the dip, correction, its all about consistent hardwork and constant learning.

For Adam he brought
14 Jul Add PG at $53.00 (new average price $55.03)
14 Jul Add USO at $32.50 (new average price $35.04)
14 Jul Add PEP at $55.70 (new average price $58.05)
14 Jul Add NKE at $51.60 (new average price $54.65)
15 Jul buy GE at $12
15 Jul buy V at $62.18
http://www.akltg.com

Live your dreams, take massive actions
be a MIRACLE MAKER!

Love andrew

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Warren buffer interview by ABC

Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway was interviewed by ABC today, in which he gave a guided support for a second economic stimulus package.

Here are some quotes from the Buffett

1. On the second economic stimulus package:

“I think that a second one may well be called for," "you hope it doesn't get watered down in many ways." "Our first stimulus bill ... was sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having also a bunch of candy mixed in ... as if everybody was putting in enough for their own constituents, it doesn't have really quite the wall that might have been anticipated there."

2. On government's public-private investment plan (PPIP)

"I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money. I just think that Wall Street owes the American people one at this point,"

3. On economic recovery:

"We are not in a freefall, but we are not in a recovery either. We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior. That change hasn't changed." "We didn't want to do it, and if we saw things coming back we wouldn't do it" (Buffett laid off 500 people from his own company)

4. On severity of current recession:

"I have never seen it quite happen like this, but what happened was in late September, the American public … saw money market funds break the buck. They saw commercial papers stop, they saw all kinds of things that they hadn't seen before,It was a shock to the system."

5. But in the end Buffett remains optimistic:

"I want to emphasize, we are going to come out of this better than ever," he said. "I mean the best days of America, by far, lie ahead. But not next week or next month and then, I don't know exactly when we will come out, but we will come out big time."

Monday, July 13, 2009

The 6 Emotional NEEDS in everyone

Hi my friends,

Today, I would like to share a powerful knowlegde that i had learned to help thousands of people to understand themselves, create breakthrough changes in their behaviours (e.g. stop smoking, quit other addictions, resolve internal conflicts, motivate themselves)and reconcile relationship issues.

Have you wondered why it is seems so difficult to change our habitual behaviours? The reason is because our decisions and behaviours are driven by our emotions more than by our logic.Logically, we want to stop smoking or stop over eating, and yet, we still find ourselves repeating the pattern of behaviours. Why do we do this? It is because smoking and over eating meets our emotional needs.

At the same time, we all logically want to have a great relationship with our spouse or friends. And yet, we sometimes find ourselves getting into the same patterns of arguments and conflicts. Again, this is all caused by a mismatch of emotional needs between well-intentioned parties.

To change any kind of behaviour, you must first understand that as human beings, our decisions and actions are almost ALWAYS driven bythe need to meet six human (emotional) needs. This is why wesometimes do things that don't make any sense at all. We do itsimply to meet these 6 human needs (by the way, this was developedby Anthony Robbins). So, what are these 6 human needs?

=======================Human Need 1: Certainty=======================

The first human need is the need for CERTAINTY. We all need to feel a sense of security that things will be okay. Certainty gives us a peace of mind and assurance.

Although we all have the need for CERTAINTY, we use different behavioural strategies to meet this need. For example, when you feel stressed, worried, unsure and uncertain, how do you meet your need for certainty?

Some people use destructive strategies like over-eating, smoking or drinking alcohol. Don't some people do these things to relieve the stress of uncertainty and get into certainty? Others get certainty by controlling other people (becoming a control freak) or by losing their temper. In one episode of Oprah, she interviewed a woman who handled her stress of being sexually abused by creating a multiple personality disorder.

At the same time, there are useful strategies to get certainty. Some people pray/use religion to get that sense of certainty. Some people, adopt empowering beliefs like, ' I know I will get through this' or 'everything happens for a reason' or they simply have faith in themselves. Others get certainty through exercise,meditation or confiding in a friend.So, think about this? How DO you meet your need for certainty? Isit constructive or destructive to you?

=========================Human Need 2: Uncertainty=========================

Now, here is the big paradox! As human beings, we have a second emotional need that is in direct conflict with our first need. We all have a need for UNCERTAINTY!

Think about it. If you had absolute 100% certainty in your life where you knew exactly what was going to happen, when it was going to happen, how it happens, before it happens every single day, how will you feel? You will feel BORED TO DEATH. This is why there are multi millionaires who have all the money and all the possessions in the world, but are depressed! Their life is so certain that they have no more challenges or surprises. No more uncertainty!

This is also why a woman/man in a perfect marriage where everything is routine and predictable will eventually get so bored, that they will unconsciously start picking a fight, having an affair or leave the marriage. There is no more excitement and stimulation that we all need emotionally

So, how do people meet the emotional need of uncertainty (i.e.challenge/surprise/variety) in their lives? Again, some people do destructive things like having an affair, starting arguments,picking up one-night stands, taking drugs, smoking when bored and drinking to get high (yup, smoking and drinking offer both certainty AND uncertainty). Some of us do neutral stuff like watching a movie, playing sports,changing jobs, making new friends or partying. This gives us the stimulation and variety we all need.Some constructive strategies would include taking on new challenges(e.g. going mountain climbing, traveling, starting a business,writing a book). So think about it, how do you meet your need for uncertainty?

==========================Human Need 3:Significance=========================

The third human emotional need is the need to feel significant/special/unique/important/needed. We all hunger for this need and again pursue it in different ways.

Some people feel significant by attaining qualifications (e.g.MBAs, PhDs etc..), achieving success, buying lots of toys (e.g.bigger house, bigger car, country club, Rolex watch etc...) or pursuing status symbols.

Others get significance by putting other people down, dressing in a unique way or tattooing every conceivable part of their body. Again, others feel significance by having children (and making sure they excel and do them proud) or flaunting their wealth. Some people get significance by being proud of certain identities they adopt like being a Christian, a Muslim, an Army Officer, a Vegetarian etc... Many people have asked me why I continue to work so hard and i now working on a few books as well, speak and coach at so many seminars and trains people and help them start up busineses, is it because you like money so much? why do you set i set my goal to achieve my dollar networth by 2010, when i really do not need that much for my lifestyle. The answer is that I am driven to all these things because it makes me feel significant (useful, special, needed) and provides me the uncertainty (challenge & variety) that I crave. It also, gives me the 4th human need, connection and love and the 6th human need,contribution. Again, think about how YOU meet the need to feel significance?

=========================Human Need 4: Love andConnection=============

The 4th human need is in direct conflict with the 3rd human need of SIGNIFICANCE. Think about this. If you felt TOTALLY significantwhere you were so unique, so special and so different from all the people around you. Would you be happy? No! You would feel disconnected from the people around you. One of our strongest needs as humans in the need to be accepted, to be loved and connected to the people around us. Once we become so special and unique, we will start to find ourselves losing that connection to our peers. I can tell you that I feel that way sometimes myself. At times I find it difficult to really be myself, connect with people I meet because people keep expecting me to be this perfect guru in team marketing industry, with all the correct answers.

Have you ever wondered why a superstar like Britney Spears with all the fame, money and talent in the world could end up screwing up her life by engaging in destructive behaviours like drink driving,drug taking that would lead to 2 divorces, losing custody of her children and ending up in a mental institution? My guess is that although she felt total significance, she felt unloved and disconnected from everyone around her.

She probably could not be herself, always having to put up a front and feeling that all the people around her were just using her. Her need for connection and love probably drove her to mix around withthe wrong company (i.e. Paris Hilton) and engaging in destructive behaviours that would get her the love/connection and sympathy she was lacking.

We all need to feel love and connection and again get it throughdifferent means. Some people get connection by getting into arelationship, getting married, making love, joining clubs, playingwith their children, having pets, prayer (connection to God) or hanging out with friends.

Sometimes, people even 'try' to get love and connection byself-abuse and falling sick (studies show 90% of all illnesses are psychosomatic). This gives them the sudden outpour of sympathy and love that they yearn for. How do you get love and connection in your life?

If Your Relationship is Not Happy, Here's Why...

I have found after working with many couples that whenever a marriage breaks down, it is always because partners are not meeting each others emotional needs. A man (or woman) often wants to leave the marriage either because he/she no longer feels significant, loved, certainty or uncertainty by his/her partner. What is a very very common scenario is that after a couple has a child, the man no longer feels the same levelof significance anymore. It seems that his wife spends all the timewith the kids, that he is no longer important. So what happens? Herather spend his time in the office where he feels more significant or find a girlfriend who makes him feel special again!

So, here is a point of reflection. How well are you meeting your partner's emotional needs?

If Your Staff Are Leaving Your Company, Here's Why...As a boss of my own company and a person who trains my partners and our sub companies in bringing put the best in our partners and aai world companies family, I have found that your staff will only be happy and motivated to give their best when they feel significant (they are praised often and recognized), certainty(sense of security of their future in the company), uncertainty(their jobs gives them variety and challenge) as well as connection(they love the people they work with and have a sense of belonging, Ownership, where if you are an employees, this need is alwayd left unmet).

================Discover the the opportunity that will skyrocket you towards financial success. www.aaiworldcompanies.com=================================

Similarly people leave a company not only for monetary reasons. They leave when they feel a lack of security (certainty), lack of challenge (uncertainty), lack of connection (they hate the people)or a lack of significance (unappreciated).

Reflection: if you are a boss/team leader, are you meeting your staff's/colleagues emotional needs to bring out the best in them?

If You Have An Addiction that You Cannot Change, Here's Why...

Finally, I have found that if you have a negative behaviour that you find hard to change, it is only because it is being used to meet two or more of your emotional needs. For example, if you find yourself constantly losing your temper, it is because it gives you a sense of significance and certainty.

If you find it difficult to stop smoking, it is probably it meets your needs for certainty (relaxes and de-stresses you), uncertainty(smoke when you feel bored), connection (especially if you smoke with friends to 'fit in') and significance (makes you look 'cool').Often, when a behaviour meets more than 2 needs, it becomes an ADDICTION.

In my Strategies of excellence programs, i show my partners how to break limiting patterns of behaviours by first finding an alternative way to meet their needs. If you do not find a new useful alternative behaviour to replace it, you will find yourself going back to the old habit/addiction.

reccomendation resources
Adam khoo - design your life, master your destiny
Anthony robbins - unlimited power, unleash the giant within


=============The Last Two Human Needs: Growth and Contribution===========

You are probably wondering what the last two human emotional needs are. Understand that the first four needs MUST be met by usconstantly. It is what drives our daily behaviours. However, to be truly fulfilled and happy, we need to meet the last two needs of 'growth' and 'contribution'. We need to constantly grow by learning more and challenging ourselves to become better. The moment we stop growing, we start dying emotionally.

Finally, we all need to contribute beyond ourselves, This is why people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett make all the money in the world only to give most of it away to charity. contribution is what gives us ultimate purpose and fulfillment in life.


Live your dreams, Take massive action
The Miracles Makers
Love Andrew Tan

I also coach with Adam khoo and here are the program that i have personally benefitted and now coaches people who come and attend the programs.

Patterns Of Excellence----------------------Discover These Easy Habits That Only The TOP 1% Of Individuals In The World Use To Become Extremely Rich, Successful, And Happy In Life:http://www.Patterns-Of-Excellence.com

Paving The Way To The Top-------------------------
Discover The 6 Simple Steps That Pushed Me To Make My First Million in less than 5 years: http://www.PavingTheWayToTheTop.com

Millionaire Book----------------How A Juvenile Misfit Who Got Kicked Out Of School Became A Millionaire And Now Earns $549,078.40 A Year:http://www.Millionaire-Book.com

Success With NLP----------------Discover the secret that transformed a hopeless underachieverinto a millionaire at just age 26... And how YOU can use this same secret to achieve success in your life:http://www.SuccessWithNLP.com

Secrets Of Millionaire Investors--------------------------------How A Former BANKRUPT Discovered The Secret Strategies ToSuccessful Options Trading And Now Makes Up to $22,368.60 A Month From The Comfort Of His Own Home!http://www.SecretsOfMillionaireInvestors.com

Secrets Of Building Multi-Million Dollar Businesses-----------------------------------------------------How To Take An Idea From Startup To A Million Dollars In 18 Months Flat... With Little Or NO Capital Required!www.MultiMillionBusinesses.com

Nurture The Winner & Genius In Your Child-----------------------------------------Discover How To Transform The Way You Communicate With Your Children And Nurture The Winner & Genius In Them!http://www.ChildWinner.com

Profit From The Panic---------------------How To Make Your Fortune From The Worst Financial Crisis Since The Great Depression!www.ProfitFromThePanic.com