Happy Mother`s Day

母亲节快乐
在这祝所有伟大的妈妈们，母亲节快乐

这张照片里，幸福，亮丽的女士，就是我妈妈。 祝你母亲节快乐！

女人，就是会吃醋的，妈妈也是女人，希望大家就借这个机会告诉你的妈妈你有多爱他。忙碌的生活，繁忙的节奏，让我们忽略了身边很多重要的事，忘了努力的打拚原来就是为了“家人”，而又因为这样而忽略了原先推动力的圆点 - 家人

我的朋友们，就借这个机会，告诉你妈妈，你有多爱她吧... 买个小礼物，送一张卡，甚至是简单的简讯，对她们来说都是最珍贵的...

有时朋友告诉我，啊... 我不习惯做这些的... 但问问自己，当你生日，节日，等等.. 那你，又喜不喜欢收到这些祝福呢？你又会不会发简讯或什么的给朋友呢？

那为什么最重要的家人，妈妈，就说不习惯... 科技就是在你对最亲最熟的家人，感到不好意思的时候，来让你表达心意的！平时还是多用上天给与我们的天然资源吧。

不然就是, "不用啦，她知道得啦..."

鬼知道！不说出口的关心=零！ZERO 没人知道你在想什么的！拍戏都不是往往旁边有人帮主脚说出真相，是不是？有没有？现在不告诉你妈妈你有多爱他，请问要等什么时候说？

我也借这个机会告诉她，你在我们心目中的地位，

我妈妈在我的心目中是无人可以取代的， 因为你的名字叫“妈妈”

干妈，可以有很多，但妈妈，就只有一个，这个地位，也只有你可以有，在我们家里，我和弟弟都是一样的共识。。。 请你知道这份爱，比任何人都来得更深，更亲，这就是只有母亲才能有的。。。母亲节快乐

Market outlook May 09

Dear Friends, Those of you who have been following the market would know that stocks are continuing that huge rally that started in early March. For the last 2 months, the Dow Jones is up 26%, the S&P 500 Index is up 30% and the Straits Times Index is up 36%. Like I always say, what goes down MUST always come up...


Personally i am making gains on some stocks and will continue to increase when its goes thru a dip, my majority are still in indexes, mainly US and China.
Although the indexes and value stocks will EVENTUALLY go back to pre crisis levels in a few years, they will not go up in a straight line. There will be us and downs in between. The smart investor,taking profits when the rally in to fast and getting back in when the pull back happens will make even more money. But this is where your skills in technical analysis comes in.

STI Blue chips have been the largest gainers, like SGX up, UOB up, Capitaland up 65% and OCBC up 61%. It is always wise to sell in batches and take profits off the table when a run up is too quick and to wait for the pull back to buy back in.
WHEN the pull back will come and HOW MUCH it will pull back honestly I DO NOT KNOW. It is near impossible to time selling off at the top and buying back at the next bottom. eg. Adam khoo, top educational provider in Asia, he will sell in batches and buy back in batches. For example, when market pulls back 20%, he will buy some back. Pull back 30%, buy more, pull back 35%, buy more and so do I, as it averages down our purchase price. If I buy at the 20% pull back and it starts its next run up, I will also start buying back in at the higher average prices.

Lets see what happens... Meanwhile, below is the latest BIG PICTURE economic report from briefing.com
Economic Reality Check The stock market has rallied off the lows of early March in part because of improved economic expectations. This is certainly valid in that the risks of a further severe downturn from the credit crisis have eased. The prospects for an improvement in economic conditions are less certain. First Quarter GDP The decline in first quarter real GDP at a 6.1% annual rate was viewed as less worrisome than the 6.3% rate of decline in the fourth quarter. This is valid.The decline in first quarter GDP was exacerbated by a huge drop in inventories. This reflected a sharp decline in industrial production and is thus a valid measure of lower economic activity. The decline in inventories does mean, however, that any pickup in demand will now result in the need for more stable production. More importantly, the 2.2% rate of increase in real personal consumption expenditures was seen as an early sign of stabilization in overall demand. This is premature.

Consumer Spending
The increase in first quarter real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) at a 2.2% annual rate was a significant improvement from the 4.3% rate of decline in the fourth quarter. A turnaround in real PCE often presages a turnaround in the overall economy.Such a conclusion may be premature this time.The quarterly increase was largely the result of a big 0.9% jump in real PCE for January after a large 0.6% drop in December. Holiday spending was weak, and some purchases were pushed into January. The seasonal factors for January are very strong, and any increase can be exaggerated.In February, real PCE was up less than 0.1%, and that was followed by a 0.2% decline in March. The apparent turnaround in real PCE rests largely on the one month of data from January. Certainly, the overall rate of decline has slowed, but it is too early to assume that consumer spending has returned to the traditional uptrend. This is further confirmed by the April auto sales data. March auto and light truck sales picked up to a 9.9 million annual rate from a dismal 9.1 million annual rate in February and 9.6 in January. A level of about 10 million was expected for April.Sales were reported on Friday and came in at a disappointing 9.3 million rate. This suggests that April real PCE will post another decline following the March decline. Consumer spending for the second quarter could turn negative again. The first quarter increase of 2.2% could prove a false sign, or at least have led to overly optimistic conclusions.

Business Investment
The real weakness in the first quarter GDP data was business investment. The weakness is likely to continue for at least one or two more quarters.Fixed investment fell at an amazing 37.9% annual rate. Investment in equipment and software was down at a 33.8% rate, and investment in nonresidential structures was down at a 44.2% rate. Residential construction was down at a 38% rate.Nonresidential construction is likely to remain extremely weak. Construction of office buildings, shopping malls, etc. is simply not going to pick up for quite a while.The rate of decline of investment in equipment and software is also likely to post further declines and residential construction spending, while possibly declining at a slower rate, is a ways from picking up. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode. That could change quickly if there is a perceived pickup in overall demand, but it will take at least another quarter or two.

Global Trade
An often overlooked aspect of the US economic outlook is global trade. Here, conditions remain somewhere between poor and scary. US exports in real dollars have plunged 22% over the past six months (a 44% annual rate). Net trade added to first quarter real GDP because imports dropped even more. That is hardly a good sign for the global economy, however.Japan, the world's second largest economy, is expected to post a decline in GDP of about 6% for all of 2009 after posting a 12% annualized drop in the fourth quarter. The European Union posted a 6.4% annualized drop for GDP in the fourth quarter. Global economies are more reliant on trade than the US, and weak trade trends and weak US imports are a continuing drag on many economies.

Overall Outlook
The downside risks for the US economy have eased in recent months. Credit market conditions have improved. Consumer spending is no longer plunging. Yet, it is premature to anticipate a return to normal growth. Unemployment is certainly going higher over the immediate months ahead. Business investment is not likely to pick up any time soon. Credit remains tight. The housing market will remain stagnant and areas such as nonresidential construction could have their worst months ahead.Real GDP is likely to be negative in both the second and third quarter. This credit-based recession will not follow the typical macro pattern of previous recessions and recovery will take longer than normal.

What It All Means
The stock market rebound the past two months is understandable and rational in terms of eliminating the worst fears. The downside risks have declined as credit market conditions have stabilized.To the extent that the market bounce is also partly based on expectations that the first quarter data indicate a rebound in consumer spending and thus an imminent return to economic growth, however, the gains are suspect. It will take a while for the economy to recover lost ground even when GDP turns higher. The same is true for profits. The market has taken a sanguine view of recent economic data, even weak data. A 40.1 reading on the ISM manufacturing index was widely heralded as showing better conditions when in fact all it means is that the rate of decline in manufacturing is slowing. AP headlined the "lower than expected drop" in new claims last week even though claims at the reported 631,000 level are horrible and suggest further gains in unemployment levels.A reality check on the data indicates that economic trends remain poor. The stock market attempts to discount the future, but this time it may be taking an overly optimistic view of the implications of recent economic data for future trends.
--Dick Green, Briefing.com

Live your dreams, Yes you have!
- love andrew tan